It has been four  five six days since the mid-term elections, and during that time I have started and abandoned four six seven different posts on that topic. So many different emotions have filled me. I may have needed at least little space to make better sense of them. A fable (kind of) to start off…

Once, there was a group of three Mexicans who set out on a fishing boat to catch sharks.  However, their boat soon experienced adverse winds and mechanical difficulties, and they were lost at sea. The fishermen existing on nothing but raw fish, rain water and the tiny amounts of additional fresh water they could condense and trap. Finally, after nine months and nine days, they were picked up by another fishing vessel, some 5500 miles from where they had started. (True story)
Of course, the Mexican fisherman were malnourished and emaciated. The captain of the ship that rescued them, a Democrat, immediately ordered that a sumptuous feast be brought forth for the starving men. They ate and ate until they had had their fill, gorging themselves on rich roast meats and delectable baked goods and every manner of decadent indulgence.
The First Mate of the rescue boat, himself a Republican, thought ill of the captain’s plan, however. He immediately dashed off a wire to the corporate office, complaining that the feast had ruined the food budget for the vessel’s entire trip. What is more, he strenuously objected to the eating habits of the rescued men. “They ate with reckless abandon,” he reported. “Plate after plate of rich, fatty food. To eat like that only will lead to grave ill health — obesity and heart disease and diabetes and worse. This must be stopped immediately,” he concluded.
The corporate managers summoned the boat back to the harbor, and launched an inquiry into the captain’s actions. They heard evidence from nutritionists and health experts, who confirmed the First Mate’s fears. No one could remain healthy on such a diet as this, they concluded. The captain was reprimanded for his poor judgment, and ordered not to pick up any more lost fisherman for the remainder of his commission. The next day, he apologized to the corporate managers, although many, including the First Mate, felt that he still didn’t really ‘get’ it. They vowed to watch his every move with great vigilance, lest his insidious plan come to pass, and every fisherman on the sea become obese and unhealthy.

And that is where I find myself after the elections. I am not disheartened that the electorate has focused its attention on putting America on a healthy diet. I am disheartened that the electorate seems not to have distinguished between the necessary government actions to turn back a catastrophic recession — a spending “feast” fed to starving fishermen, if you will — and the long-term fiscal realities that we must face.

Somewhere, somehow, successful candidates managed to turn the government’s response to the recent economic crisis upside down. Not only did they portray the government’s response as ineffective, they managed to sell it as the cause of the crisis. That is absurd. Without the Bush/Obama TARP and stimulus interventions, today unemployment would be much higher, and economic growth would be much weaker (perhaps even the economy still contracting), and bankruptcies and mortage defaults would be at even higher levels, and government spending (on safety net programs) would be considerably higher, and government receipts would be much lower (on a smaller economy; all capital losses, no gains), and federal deficits would be much higher, and federal debt would be growing much faster.

But that’s not what seemed to be in people’s minds last Tuesday. Voters seemed to think that runaway spending and an expansionist view of government had created the economic crisis, had created the huge deficits and growing federal debt.  They seemed to be oblivious to the reality that the campaign promises of many of the newly elected — to move immediately toward cutting spending and balancing the budget — likely would push the fragile economy right back into recession, economic contraction, job losses and all the woes that derive from that.

I would love to have an honest debate in this country about the proper size and scope of government, about how we really do address structural over-spending; about how to use tax policy to most effectively promote economic growth. Unfortunately, the mid-term elections were not that debate. They were a debate between the cynical fantasy of the minority party (to cut taxes and cut spending so as to balance the budget, all to end the current recession) and the naive oblivion of the majority party (failing to put forth a necessary agenda to address the country’s long-term structural deficits).

Gahhh.

Advertisements

If the Democrats lose control of Congress in the November elections because Democrats have offered too little vision for how to address federal spending and long-term structural deficits, then that strikes me as a fair and reasonable outcome. The Democrats have not. Even if the election turns on competing visions of the role of government in addressing the needs of citizens — that is, if voters turn out Democrats because they somehow prefer the current healthcare system to that recently enacted, or they decide they’d rather hope for the best and take no action on global climate change — well, I disagree with those positions, but at least that would be a fair outcome of a fair debate.

If the Democrats retain control of Congress in the November elections because of their policies reversed the catastrophic recession conditions the country faced in 2007-08, then that also is fair and reasonable.

But if the Democrats lose control of Congress because voters blame them for the current lethargy in the economy, that is an unfair and unreasonable outcome. Yet that seems to be exactly where the electorate is right now. What exactly are the objectionable economic policy actions of the Democrats, anyway? That they enacted the biggest tax cut in history? That they put forth stimulus funds that created (or “saved”) an estimated 3 million jobs?

The accurate way to look at it is that a huge economic tsunami was coming at us, and Obama hastily built a levee that mitigated the damage. Was it a perfect levee? No. But we must remember that the tsunami was coming either way. If Republicans had controlled Congress in 2009, and had pursued policies akin to what they are campaigning on now, what would have been the result? No levee at all. Job losses, which had been running more than 700,000 per month at the time, would have continued longer and deeper. The economic contraction would have lasted longer and been more severe. Budget deficits, which are driven by the recession, would have been worse. We would have absorbed the full brunt of the tsunami.

So if the Democrats lose over their handling of the economy in the short run, that’s just wrong.

Politics is a winner-take-all sport. There is no prize for second place. There is no prize for securing a party nomination. One person gains elective office; everyone else has to settle for talking head gigs on Fox News and MSNBC opinion shows.

This brings me to the Kentucky Senate primaries held Tuesday. The media noise is all about Rand Paul’s trouncing of Trey Grayson, 206,000 to 124,000. And deservedly so: a political novice beating the Senate minority leader’s hand-picked candidate by a 5:3 margin is quite an achievement, and quite a testament to the force that the Tea Party brought to bear on the primary.

Meanwhile, Jack Conway eeked out a quiet victory in the Democratic primary for the same Senate seat, beating Daniel Mongiardo by 227,000 to 221,000.

But, again, nominations are nothing but preludes to elections. Neither Rand nor Conway has his hand on a Bible yet. The important question to be asked this Wednesday is whether Rand, or the Tea Party, has a strategy for defeating Conway. After all, the runner-up on the Democratic side had more primary votes than Rand.

Consider this: Comparing primary voting results, Conway starts with a 20,000 vote lead over Rand. Let’s give Rand the benefit of the doubt, and suppose in November he retains every vote cast yesterday for his Republican opponents. That would mean Rand has to convince a whopping 42% of the people who voted yesterday for Mongiardo and the other Democatic candidates to switch to him. That is a monumental undertaking.

It doesn’t take a political genius to understand that Rand was nominated by dominating the rightward end of the political spectrum. He needs to find hundreds of thousands of votes beyond that narrow base. What message will he bring to the November campaign to accomplish that?

Primary results: http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate/kentucky