It seems as close to certain as things get in politics that Republicans are going to wrest a majority in the House of Representatives in the upcoming election. Along the way, a lot has been made of the anti-incumbent fervor sweeping the electorate, and how that, while landing as a deluge on the Democrats, may soak Republican incumbents as well.

We have John Boehner sitting out there as the ranking Republican and Minority Leader in the House. Here is a guy who has served in Congress for 20 years through his current term, has strong ties to lobbyists, voted for hugely burgeoning budget deficits all through the 2000s, opposed the Republican’s failed illegal immigration bill in 2005, and voted for the TARP legislation.

If Republicans indeed win a majority and if business as usual prevails in Congress, he will become Speaker of the House. But my question is, should anyone expect business as usual? Will a deeply entrenched Washington insider with that voting history be acceptable to the newcomers, fueled as they are by an entirely new strain of anti-Washington sentiment? I wonder if the Republican establishment is expecting this new crop of Republican Representatives to come in and obediently fall in line with the usual seniority rules.

Maybe, just maybe, there is real change in the air. For better or for worse, perhaps, but real change.